In the spring update to its U.S. Local Advertising Forecast 2016, BIA/Kelsey forecasts the overall local media marketplace to experience consistent growth from 2015-2020, reaching approximately $172.2 billion by 2020 (CAGR: 4.2%).
This growth will be driven by exceptional increases in mobile and social advertising, continued strong political advertising in even-numbered years, and an overall growth in the U.S. economy.
Growth in online/digital advertising revenues will be stronger than originally predicted, with a 2015-2020 CAGR of 12.8 percent. Over the same period, traditional advertising revenues will remain flat, with a CAGR of 0.0 percent.
By 2020 local online/interactive/digital advertising revenues will be $71.6 billion, representing 41.6 percent of total local media advertising revenues, up from 28.0 percent in 2015.
“While digital’s impressive growth, driven by mobile and social, comes mainly at the expense of traditional print media, it’s important to note other traditional media segments are maintaining a position in the local marketplace,” said Mark Fratrik, chief economist, BIA/Kelsey. “National and local businesses still utilize a mix of advertising platforms, comprised of digital and traditional formats, capitalizing on the strengths of various media to get the message out.”
The BIA/Kelsey U.S. Local Advertising Forecast 2016 is a five-year forecast that delivers a national overview of total U.S. spending in local markets and individual media breakouts for direct mail, local video, local over-the-air television, local cable television, out-of-home/OOH video, newspaper, online, radio, mobile, directories, social and local magazines.
According to the forecast, the top five media (revenues and share of market) contributing to the local media pie in 2016 are:
- Direct Mail: $36.9 billion (25% share)
- Local TV: $21.9 billion (15% share)
- Newspapers: $17.4 billion (12% share)
- Online / Interactive: $17.3 billion (12% share)
- Radio: $15.4 billion (11% share)