The Outlook forecasts that global E&M spending is expected to rise from $1.74 trillion in 2014 to $2.23 trillion by 2019, growing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.1 percent. The U.S. remains the largest E&M market, growing at a 4.9 percent CAGR and reaching $723 billion by 2019, from $568 billion in 2014.
While global revenue from digital media is expected to generate stronger growth, non-digital media is still projected to be the significant contributor of global consumer revenues in 2019. A key takeaway of this multifaceted environment is the resilience – and in some cases resurgence – of some traditional media, including the shared, live experiences that consumers still love. In the U.S., spending on live music ticket sales (4.4. percent CAGR) and cinema box office (4 percent CAGR) is expected to outpace overall U.S. consumer spending at 2.9 percent by 2019. U.S. digital spending is expected to grow at 11.1 percent CAGR over the next five years and account for 46 percent of overall U.S. E&M spending growth, up from 34 percent in 2014.
U.S. advertising revenues are forecasted to rise at a CAGR of 3.5 percent, increasing from $193.8 billion in 2014 to $230 billion in 2019. In the U.S., Internet and video games advertising, both forecasted to grow at 11.1 percent CAGR, is expected to continue to dominate the growth landscape. Furthermore, Internet advertising is projected to overtake U.S broadcast TV advertising (2.5 percent CAGR) in 2018. Digital advertising is gaining share from all segments with rapid rises in mobile and video Internet advertising. U.S. mobile Internet advertising will likely surge at a 25.6 percent CAGR in 2019, which overtook U.S. display Internet advertising in 2014, and will supplant paid search in the U.S. in 2016 as the leading Internet advertising category. Video advertising spend in the U.S. is projected to rise at a CAGR of 15 percent.
Notable U.S. tipping points:
- Mobile monetization is the next critical challenge. As the world’s second-largest mobile Internet access market trailing China, U.S. mobile Internet subscribers is forecasted to increase to 292.8 million in 2019, at a 4.7 percent CAGR.
- TV and video consumption patterns are changing as consumers migrate towards flexible, on-demand viewing. The rise of OTT is contributing to the decline of U.S. subscription TV penetration, which is expected to fall from 79.5 percent in 2012 to 76.9 percent in 2016.
- Electronic home video is expected to overtake physical home video in 2015. Total electronic home video revenue is projected to rise from $8.4 billion in 2014 to $16.54 billion in 2019, a CAGR of 14.6 percent.
- Electronic home video ($12 billion) is expected to surpass box office ($11.8 billion) as the lead revenue driver by 2017.
- Digital music streaming is expected to overtake digital downloading in 2018, reaching $1.9 billion in 2019, up from $1.1 billion in 2014, a CAGR of 11.2 percent.
- Consumers are embracing digital for magazines (16.8 percent CAGR) and books (12.3 percent CAGR) faster than newspapers (4.4 percent CAGR) during the forecast period.
- Electronic consumer books revenues will be driven by high tablet penetration. By 2019, digital is expected to account for 45 percent of the U.S. total books revenue.
- Innovate around the product and user experience;
- Develop seamless consumer relationships across distribution channels;
- Put mobile and increasingly video at the center of their consumer offerings.