A Tik Tok Ban Would Impact Music Industry Promotion

If a looming ban of Tik tok in the U-S could withstand a legal challenge — former President Donald Trump’s attempt to ban TikTok and Chinese messaging app WeChat both failed — TikTok’s parent company, Bytedance, would be forced to sell the company. President Joe Biden’s administration has encouraged Bytedance to sell TikTok. But it wouldn’t be a straightforward process. China would “strongly oppose” a forced sale, a Ministry of Commerce spokesperson said Thursday, and TikTok is subject to Chinese law on tech exports and would require government approval.

Billboard reports a prompt sale of TikTok, which is reportedly valued at $60 billion, would be the best outcome for the music industry in search of new sources of streaming revenue. TikTok’s revenue rocketed from $4 billion in 2021 to $10 billion in 2022, according to reports. Research firm Omdia projects that TikTok’s ad revenue will climb to $44 billion by 2027 — presumably assuming there are no geopolitical interferences — and surpass the combined video ad revenues of Meta and YouTube. Although TikTok is not a major source of revenue for labels and publishers, rights holders expect to eventually have licensing agreements that give them a share of advertising revenue for user-generated content (like their deal with YouTube).

The current hodgepodge of bans also hurts both TikTok and the music industry. In the United States, TikTok has already been banned by some federal agencies, state and local governments and universities. Elsewhere, TikTok has been banned from the official phones of staff of the European Commission, U.K. parliament, Canadian government, Belgian government, Danish Defense Ministry and Latvian Foreign Ministry, to name a few. Fewer TikTok apps installed on fewer smartphones is twice the punishment for an app that depends on user-generated content. Lower usage means fewer people creating and viewing videos.

Perhaps the biggest question is what would happen to TikTok under new ownership. New ownership would eliminate restraints on TikTok’s revenue and user growth, but if the product suffers, the music industry would be handed a less effective promotional tool and a less valuable source of revenue. The only certainty in this TikTok controversy is that such unintended consequences are guaranteed.