In an update to the 2024 U.S. Local Advertising Forecast, BIA Advisory Services is now estimating that revenues across all local media in the U.S. will reach $172 billion in 2024, an increase of 9.3% over 2023.
As part of the slightly downward revised forecast, BIA is predicting that TV over the air (OTA) will be up 28.3% and TV digital will grow by 24.9%.
BIA forecasts local over-the-air radio ad sales will total $10.78 billion with another $2.98 billion from online sales. That is a mixed outlook compared to its last update released in October. BIA thinks radio’s digital radio will grow a half percent more than it did in the fall, but it also estimates over-the-air local ad sales will be four-tenths of a point less than before.
The spending bounce will be driven by local political and other key local vertical ad spend, and significant ad growth for connected TV/over-the-top (CTV/OTT), TV OTA, and TV digital. Even so, the forecast reflects a reduction of 2.0% from BIA’s October 2023 estimate.
“As expected, local political advertising will be substantial this year, and it’s fueling spend across the media landscape,” said Nicole Ovadia, vice president of forecasting and analysis, BIA Advisory Services. “Our slight adjustment down for this year is mainly due to mixed economic signals, a slowdown in certain consumer purchases, and lower than expected spending in digital and direct mail advertising at the end of 2023 that may flow into this year. However, we still anticipate 2024 to be better for local advertising than 2023 and certain media like TV OTA, TV digital, and CTV/OTT are growing substantially.”
The split between traditional and digital advertising shows that digital has a slightly smaller share with 48.7 percent of the overall advertising spend at $84 billion. Traditional media ad revenue is slated at 51.3 percent of the ad spend at $88 billion. Growth is occurring in both types of media. TV OTA (+28.3 percent) and TV Digital (+24.9 percent) are both projected to grow this year, even when looking at forecast estimates with and without political advertising.
Top three fastest-growing verticals year-over-year:
- Political (+1975.2 percent)
- Real Estate (+12.5 percent)
- Leisure and Recreation (+4.7%)
Key local business verticals declining year-over-year:
- Health (-3.3%)
- General Services (-2.5%)
- Automotive (-1.0%)
"Beyond political, one category to also watch is real estate, as there's been so much pressure around home prices and interest rates," said Ovadia. "We believe later this year when rates start to decrease, a flurry of activity will generate increased advertising, especially by realtors. Declining verticals like health are level setting from the pandemic but certain key areas of this vertical are holding spending steady and even increasing. Auto will not make a full recovery to pre-pandemic spending levels through the end of our forecast period in 2027."
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