2025 Expected To Be Complex for Broadcasting

S&P Global Market Intelligence is out with their 2025 Trends report. Besides radio, the report discusses the broader media landscape and trends that may impact the radio industry.

Key Media Trends for 2025

• Convergence of Streaming, Cable and Wireless: The report highlights the increasing interconnectedness of streaming, cable and wireless services. This trend may influence radio's evolution, especially with the rise of digital broadcasting and podcasting.
• Shifting Sports Rights and Cable Write-Downs: Changes in sports rights and cable network dynamics could impact radio's role in broadcasting live events.
• Broadcast TV and Radio Outlook: The report notes challenges for radio, including struggles to recover from pandemic impacts and competition from streaming giants.

The report paints a complex picture for the US broadcast station industry in 2025. Here's the key points:

• Total Advertising Revenue: Projected to decline by 9.3%, dropping to $32.83 billion from $36.19 billion in 2024. This decline is attributed to the absence of election and Olympic advertising.
• Core Ad Verticals: Automotive, retail, and travel are still struggling due to inflation and high interest rates. However, pharmaceuticals, telecom, and professional services are expected to outperform other categories.
• Radio Ad Revenue: Expected to decline by 3.3% in 2025, reaching $10.86 billion, with minimal recovery projected, stabilizing at $10.80 billion by 2029.Local Advertising: Continues to outperform national ad markets, benefiting from deep community ties. However, digital-native platforms are rapidly siphoning ad budgets as content migrates from linear to streaming formats.
• Streaming Audio and Podcasting: Podcasting has emerged as a standout segment, projected to become the largest ad revenue growth driver in the US market. Monthly podcast listeners grew by 13% year-over-year in 2024, reaching an estimated 135 million. Edison Research reported that 47% of the US population aged 12 and older listened to a podcast in the past month, a five-point increase from 2023. Familiarity with podcasting also climbed to 84%.

Economic Insights for 2025  While not radio-specific, the report's economic insights provide context for the media industry's outlook:

• Renewed Inflationary Pressures: Expected to pause the Fed's easing cycle, leading to less accommodative global financial conditions.
• Divergent National Inflation Dynamics: Inflation trends will differ across regions, with renewed pressures in the US and disinflationary forces in Western Europe and mainland China.
• Persistent US Dollar Strength: The US dollar's strength may impact international trade and investment in the media sector.