S&P Global Issues Broadcast Outlook For 2024

• The US broadcast station industry is expected to reach $36.68 billion in total advertising revenue in 2024, up 8.4% from $33.84 billion in 2023. Core ad categories — including pharmaceuticals, telecom and professional services — are still relatively strong, while the automotive, retail and travel categories remain soft.
• The local ad market continues to be stronger than the national side of the spot ad business for broadcast stations in 2024, with major brands and ad agencies shifting budgets to streaming, mobile and social media platforms.
• Outside of advertising, TV station group owners continue to rely on growth in gross retransmission consent and virtual sub fees, which are expected to generate $15.22 billion in 2024

For TV stations, spending in the 2024 presidential election year is expected to surpass prior records, with a possible rematch of Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump at the top of the ticket. Toss-ups in some US Senate and Congressional races could shift power in both houses, in addition to the presidency. And issue-based ads around controversial propositions could add even more revenue to some station's coffers. Political ad spending on TV stations is expected to reach $3.94 billion, up 10.0% from the last presidential election year in 2020.

In 2024, TV station industry revenue, including gross national/local spot advertising, digital and retrans fees, is expected to climb 8.3% to $40.04 billion, up from $36.96 billion estimated in 2023. Total spot ad revenue, excluding digital, is expected to grow 15.4% with a boost from political to $21.57 billion.

The radio station business has been challenged to remain relevant and part of national ad budgets, although it is still relatively strong in the local ad markets. Kagan Research projects a decline in US radio ad revenue of 0.9% to $11.86 billion in 2024. That is roughly $1 billion higher than radio ad revenue in the pandemic ad recession of 2020 but still approximately $2 billion lower than pre-pandemic levels. Radio ads are predominantly local and focused on the auto, retail, travel and entertainment categories, which have been under pressure from inflation and a higher interest rate environment over the past couple of years.

Radio also must compete with streaming music and podcasting alternatives and with a remote working class that has reduced commuting hours during prime in-car radio time. Despite those challenges, radio's lower ad cost, community outreach and relatively high return on investment compared to other media should help maintain its ad share in its local markets.

Radio's 2023 deal volume of just $212.5 million was down 35.6% from the total of $329.9 million in 2022, but there was more activity in the second half of the year and could be more prospects in 2024, with the Chapter 11 bankruptcy restructuring of Audacy Inc. and smaller privately held radio owners such as Neuhoff Family LP exiting the business.

The 2024 Outlook from S&P Global also contains a note on political advertising:

Political advertising will be spent disproportionately on local stations in swing-state markets and those with higher expected population growth — such as Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Texas and Wisconsin — which are forecast to rise more than the national average. Markets in three of those eight — North Carolina, Texas and Wisconsin — are among the top five TV and radio markets that are expected to grow most quickly, based on our most recent ad revenue growth forecasts for the 2023–2028 period.