Mid-Terms To Set Record For Political Ad Dollars

With a polarized political landscape, some contentious primary fights anticipated and a combative fight ahead for control of Congress, AdImpact projects the 2021-22 election cycle will set a record in political ad spend at $8.9 billion for a midterm election, reports Forbes. This is an increase of 244% from the nearly $4 billion spent in 2017-18 cycle and will be comparable to the $9.0 billion spent in the 2020 cycle. The projected dollar amount is an indication of how important midterm elections will be for both parties.

For the 2022 midterm election there will be statewide 34 U.S. Senate elections and 36 gubernatorial elections up for grabs. In addition, elections will be held for all 435 House of Representatives seats as well as numerous down ballot elections.

By Medium: Although broadcast television is expected to remain the most important medium for political ad dollars, more and more are investing in digital media as the industry fragments. In the 2021-22 cycle broadcast television, at $4.6 billion, will account for slightly over half of all ad dollars spent. The figure however, is below the 59% ($5.3 billion) allocated to broadcast television for the 2019-20 cycle. For the 2017-18 cycle, 75% of all ad dollars had been earmarked for broadcast television.  

For 2021-22, $1.48 billion worth of ad time will be spent on nascent Connected TV, more than cable television ($1.34 billion), Facebook and Google ($1.29 billion) and radio at $220 million. CTV combines the targeting capability associated with digital media with the awareness attributes of television. As with previous elections, Facebook and Google will be used primarily for fundraising. 

By State: Looking at geography, AdImpact forecasts one-third of all political advertising will be spent in just five states, Florida ($593 million), California ($592 million), Georgia ($551 million), Pennsylvania ($538 million) and Arizona ($525 million). Florida, Georgia, Pennsylvania and Arizona will all be battleground states with competitive races for U.S. Senate and for governor. Although a reliable “blue” state in recent elections, California will have 53 House of Representative races, and statewide races for the U.S. Senate and for governor.

With control of Congress at stake, donations have been on the upswing fueling political ad spending. For example, during the first six months of 2021, ActBlue, received over $600 million in contributions via its online fundraising platform from Democrat donors. WinRed, the Republican online funding platform, received nearly $270 million in campaign contributions during the first six months of the year.

The biggest beneficiaries of this largesse will once again be local broadcasters, cable networks, Facebook, Google and now Connected TV suppliers.