"Given both the shifts in consumer behavior to e-commerce and the ability of digital to produce more targeted and efficient results, this snap-back is essentially fueled by a return to growth in digital spending at the two largest ad platforms (Alphabet and Facebook)," a bullish Nathanson argued in an investors note.
He forecast U.S. advertising growth to fall by 8.6 percent in 2020, led by a 13 percent decline in traditional spending and a 3 percent fall in online ad spending. But a digital landscape shaped by a streaming space that predates the coronavirus pandemic explains the rapid recovery forecast for next year.
Michael Nathanson |
New streaming video services became a boon for U.S. advertisers before the COVID-19 crisis, with new digital behemoths accounting for big jumps in domestic advertising spending, as have digital-first marketing vehicles like Facebook, Amazon and Alphabet.
"Big picture, we see a solid bounce back in ad spending in 2021 led by +20 percent growth in online ad spending (which returns to pre-2020 growth rates), while TV spending is expected to be flat," Nathanson said of next year after a gradual "U-shaped" recovery in 2020.
Looking beyond 2020, Nathanson doesn't see the digital ad spending rebound next year coming at the expense of traditional linear TV, but having emerged as a digital outgrowth of consumers long heading online. "...Digital has grown their ad base from clients that are not entirely represented by the brand dollars that emanate from Fortune 500 TV advertisers," Nathanson argued.
No comments:
Post a Comment