Friday, April 4, 2025

Forecast: YouTube To Become World’s Largest Media Company


YouTube is poised to overtake Disney as the world’s largest media company by revenue in 2025, a remarkable milestone for a platform that began just 20 years ago. 

According to a recent report by MoffettNathanson analyst Michael Nathanson, YouTube generated $54.2 billion in revenue in 2024, trailing Disney’s media revenue (excluding its parks and experiences divisions) by just $5.5 billion, with Disney at $59.7 billion. Nathanson predicts that YouTube’s growth trajectory will see it surpass Disney by the end of 2025, earning it the title of the “new king of all media.”

This projection hinges on YouTube’s explosive growth across multiple revenue streams: advertising, subscriptions, and its virtual MVPD service, YouTube TV. 

In 2024, YouTube’s ad revenue hit $36.15 billion, up 15% year-over-year, with a record-breaking $10.5 billion in Q4 alone. Subscription services like YouTube Premium and YouTube Music, boasting over 125 million global subscribers as of March 2025, contributed an estimated $18.1 billion in “other revenue.” YouTube TV, with over 8 million subscribers despite a price hike from $73 to $83 per month in December 2024, further bolsters its earnings. Nathanson forecasts that by 2027, YouTube could reach over $75 billion in annual revenue, driven by continued subscriber growth and enhanced monetization.


YouTube’s dominance isn’t just financial—it’s a leader in viewer engagement. 

Nielsen’s February 2025 Media Distributor Gauge report showed YouTube commanding an 11.6% share of TV viewing time in the U.S., outpacing Disney’s 10.0%, Fox’s 8.3%, and Netflix’s 8.2%. This marked YouTube’s highest share ever and its second month at No. 1, with nearly 27% of U.S. streaming time spent on the platform. Unlike competitors, this figure excludes mobile and laptop viewing, as well as YouTube TV, suggesting its total reach is even greater. CEO Neal Mohan noted in early 2025 that TV has surpassed mobile as the primary way U.S. viewers watch YouTube, a shift advertisers are increasingly capitalizing on.

If valued as a standalone entity, Nathanson estimates YouTube’s worth at $475 billion to $550 billion—roughly 30% of Alphabet’s $1.9 trillion market cap. This dwarfs Disney’s media valuation, though Disney’s broader empire, including its $30+ billion parks business, keeps it a larger conglomerate overall. YouTube’s ascent reflects its evolution from a user-generated content hub—launched on February 14, 2005, by Chad Hurley, Steve Chen, and Jawed Karim, and acquired by Google for $1.65 billion in 2006—to a media juggernaut blending ad-supported videos, premium subscriptions, and live TV.

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