Fragmentation Hits Podcasting

None of the 10 most popular podcasts in the U.S. last year debuted in the last couple years, according to Edison Research. According to Lucas Shaw at Bloomberg, They are an average of more than 7 years old, and three of the top five are more than a decade old. (“The Joe Rogan Experience,” “This American Life” and “Stuff You Should Know.”)  Only a few podcasts in the top 50 (“SmartLess,” “The Michelle Obama Podcast,” “Frenemies”) are less than two years old. And none of them are in the top 25.

This trend vexes executives and producers across the podcasting industry, who worry they are wasting a lot of money on new shows. Spotify, Amazon, SiriusXM, iHeartMedia and outside investors have plowed billions of dollars into production companies. Spotify has spent more than anyone, paying about $500 million for three studios. Where is all this money going if these companies aren’t producing new hits?

Pretty much everyone agrees on the reason. There are more podcasts than ever before. Spotify hosts more than 3 million podcasts, up from a few hundred thousand just a few years ago. While the vast majority of those new shows are either defunct or have minuscule audiences, there are still way more podcasts than there were just a few years ago.

The number of new podcasts has grown more quickly than the podcast audience, and so the number of listeners per show is going down. The list of shows competing to be that program you try on your weekend walk is longer than the backlog of TV shows you want to watch.

Fragmentation is happening across media. It’s always easier to find an audience when you are early to a trend (like the internet). It was easier to build a big audience on YouTube five years ago than it is today. That’s why a lot of people flocked to TikTok. Soon enough there will be a new platform of choice.

Podcasts that launched 10 years ago or five years ago have a big advantage over ones that are brand new. They had years to build up an audience, gather word of mouth and appear in search results. While the audience for new shows is smaller, existing hits, like Joe Rogan and “Call Her Daddy,” are adding listeners.

Companies have to rely on existing hits to launch new shows. Podcast listeners are loyal. They develop attachments to individual stations, shows and hosts. Listening to “The Daily” or Bill Simmons or Alex Cooper is comfort food for a lot of people. They’d rather listen to their take on a subject, even if it isn’t good, than the savvy take of a newcomer. Faced with an onslaught of new podcasts, people are retreating to the familiar. Companies need to use these hits to promote new shows.

It’s not that new podcasts can’t be hits. But the bar for being a hit is higher, which means it’s going to take longer (and a lot more work) to get there.