Mobile advertising will account for 30.5% of global advertising expenditure in 2020, up from 19.2% in 2017, according to Zenith’s Advertising Expenditure Forecasts, published Monday. Expenditure on mobile advertising will total US$187B in 2020, more than twice the US$88B spent on desktop advertising, and just US$5B behind the US$192B spent on television advertising. At the current rate of growth mobile advertising will comfortably overtake television in 2021.
As internet users switch from desktop to mobile devices – and new users go straight to mobile – online advertising is making the same switch. Advertising on mobile devices is rising at a meteoric rate, and is taking market share from all most other media. Mobile adspend grew 35% in 2017, and we expect it to grow at an average rate of 21% a year to 2020.
However, brands that are shifting budgets to mobile advertising may be affecting their ability to win new customers and expand their market share. Zenith’s Touchpoints ROI Tracker research shows that traditional mass media are more effective at driving recall among new or light buyers, therefore having a strong understanding of acquisition channels and retention channels is key.
According to Touchpoints ROI Tracker, television ads are most effective at driving recall among potential customers, while mobile ads are least effective. Potential customers are 53% as likely to recall television ads as existing customers, but for mobile ads this falls to 41%. Targeting mobile ads at existing customers can certainly help brands achieve short-term performance targets, especially because mobile is increasingly tying together the whole consumer journey. However, mobile is currently less effective at creating long-term awareness among potential customers than traditional media, so brands with a heavy mobile presence should consider investing more in traditional mass media to compensate for this.
Most of the traditional media are still growing despite the inexorable rise of mobile advertising, but generally at very low rates. Zenith forecasts television and radio to grow by 1% a year between 2017 and 2020, while out-of-home advertising grows by 3% a year. Cinema, however, is growing at 16% a year, thanks to investment in new screens, successful movie franchises, and better international marketing.
Print advertising continues to shrink together with circulations: between 2017 and 2020 Zenith forecasts newspaper adspend to shrink by an average of 5% a year, while magazine adspend shrinks by 6%.
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