James Cridland, a prominent radio futurologist, consultant, and editor of the daily podcast newsletter Podnews, has long analyzed global audio trends, with a particular focus on the shifting landscape of traditional radio formats.
In his latest Radioland newsletter Cridland makes an explicit statement predicting that AM radio's audience in the US will "entirely vanish by 2034," his writings and analyses consistently highlight a steep, accelerating decline in AM listening, driven by US trends such as the rise of digital streaming, podcasting, and the removal of AM receivers from electric vehicles (EVs).
Previously, he has warned of AM's obsolescence, framing it as a medium increasingly irrelevant to younger generations and ill-equipped for modern consumption.
🔑Key vulnerabilities:
Technological Obsolescence and EV Shift: Cridland has repeatedly noted that AM radio is being phased out of new cars due to interference from EV electronics, a trend he calls a "last-ditch effort" by the US industry to stay relevant. In a 2023 post titled "AM Radio's US Defenders," he discusses lobbying efforts to mandate AM in vehicles, but argues it's too late—AM's poor audio quality and static issues make it incompatible with digital expectations. He predicts this will sever AM's core listening habit (in-car commuting), which accounts for a significant portion of its audience.
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| James Cridland |
Digital Migration and Competition: Cridland highlights how podcasts and streaming (e.g., Spotify, Apple Music) are capturing spoken-word audio—AM's traditional strength (talk/news/sports)—with 20% year-on-year ad growth in podcasts vs. stagnant radio revenue. In his 2021 analysis "More Talk, Less Music," he cites NPR's Spoken Word Audio Report, showing younger US audiences favoring on-demand audio over scheduled broadcasts. He argues music-focused AM stations are even more doomed, as streaming offers better discovery.
Cridland's tone is pragmatic rather than alarmist; he views AM's "end" as evolutionary, urging stations to pivot to digital or hybrid models (e.g., DAB+ in Europe, which he praises for sustaining radio reach).US Listening Trends Underpinning the Prediction.
Cridland bases his forecasts on verifiable US data, which paint a dire picture for AM specifically:
Overall Radio Reach: About 80% of Americans 12+ listen to terrestrial radio weekly, but this masks AM's niche status—only ~15-20% of that is AM, per Nielsen (down from 30% in 2010).
Decline Rates: Edison Research shows AM listening time among adults 25-54 dropped 25% from 2019-2024, accelerated by the pandemic (commute listening vanished) and EV adoption (projected 50% of new cars by 2030). For 18-34-year-olds, AM engagement is under 5%, with a compound annual decline of ~10-15%.
📻Extrapolation to 2034: If current trends hold (e.g., 10% annual drop in share among under-50s), AM's weekly audience could shrink from ~40 million today to under 1 million by 2034—effectively "vanishing" as a mass medium.