Disney’s aggressive marketing push for its new ESPN direct-to-consumer (D2C) streaming service hasn’t convinced analysts of a major subscriber surge.
According to MediaPost, LightShed Partners’ Richard Greenfield forecasts about two million new subscribers by year-end, matching the projected growth for Fox Corp.’s Fox One, launched the same day. Wolfe Research’s Peter Supino predicts 1.75 million D2C subscribers in 2025, rising to three million in 2026.
ESPN’s cable TV base has shrunk to 61 million subscribers, down 23 million from 84 million in 2020, reflecting cord-cutting trends impacting U.S. TV networks.
However, only 28% of ESPN’s legacy pay-TV subscribers, excluding those from Comcast, YouTube TV, Dish Network/Sling TV, and Cox Communications, will initially access the D2C service.
The service’s $29.99 monthly price tag may hinder growth, despite promotional bundles with Disney+, Hulu, and Fox One to reduce costs. MoffettNathanson’s Robert Fishman highlights ESPN’s $3 billion acquisition of NFL Network, NFL Fantasy Football, and NFL RedZone as a potential boost, driving subscriber growth and engagement across Disney’s D2C portfolio.
Analysts see the new ESPN D2C service replacing the limited ESPN+, which may phase out. Supino estimates a $3 billion revenue opportunity if 40% of ESPN+ subscribers upgrade to the full D2C offering.