Democrats lead the 2026 generic congressional ballot by 7 to 13 points in five recent high-quality polls, a range associated with a potential midterm wave with less than seven weeks until Election Day.
The New York Times, CBS News, Reuters, Quinnipiac University and Marquette Law School all show that spread this month, after an earlier stretch when the race looked closer than Democrats wanted. The 2026 primary season ended Tuesday.
Polls can shift, and seven weeks remain. Still, the Times-Siena survey and the other new polls point to several supporting findings. Likely voters in the Times-Siena poll favor Democrats on 7 of 8 major issues, each by at least 7 points. That includes typically Republican-leaning topics: the budget deficit (51%–41%), foreign wars (50%–43%) and immigration (52%–45%).
Latino registered voters have moved sharply toward Democrats, from an 8-point Democratic edge in April 2025 and 16 points in January to 36 points now. Among Latino likely voters, the margin is 43 points (68%–25%), which would rank among the largest Democratic advantages in recent cycles.
Remaining undecided likely voters also lean Democratic in the Times-Siena data. They narrowly preferred Donald Trump in 2024 but now disapprove of him 55%–19%, with 4 in 10 strongly disapproving.
Republican efforts to brand Democrats as socialists have shown limited payoff. Quinnipiac finds more registered voters say they are “less likely” to back a MAGA candidate (51%) than a democratic socialist (43%). Times-Siena finds only 30% of likely voters say they would prefer Democrats who were not democratic socialists.
Voters also give low priority to Trump’s focus on a ballroom, a triumphal arch and Kennedy Center disputes. In a Reuters-Ipsos poll, 70% of registered voters say creating and renovating monuments should be a low priority or no priority at all; 22% call it at least a “somewhat high” priority.