- First Look at 2027 Points to Continued Underlying Growth
- Mobile continues to compound
BIA Advisory Services has updated its 2026 U.S. Local Advertising Forecast, projecting total local ad revenue to reach $186.1 billion, up $1.6 billion (+0.9%) from the firm's April 2026 estimate of $184.5 billion and approximately 9% year over year from 2025. The increase is driven primarily by higher political ad spending heading into the midterms, along with continued strength in mobile.
Excluding political advertising, the 2026 forecast is now $176.4 billion, up $0.3 billion (+0.2%) from the prior estimate of $176.1 billion and 3.9% over 2025, reflecting steady, broad-based growth across the underlying local ad market.
“Political spending came in higher than we anticipated in April, with most of the incremental spending flowing into TV OTA and TV OTT,” said Senan Mele, VP of Forecasting and Data Analysis, BIA Advisory Services. “Legal Services was also notable in this update, reaching $9.3 billion, up 4.6% from the prior forecast. Despite higher media costs and a more fragmented media environment, law firms continue to invest heavily in television, both linear and streaming, where the ability to reach large audiences and generate qualified leads continues to drive demand.”
BIA now projects $9.7 billion in 2026 for local political spending, up from $8.4 billion in the April forecast, which is an increase of $1.3 billion concentrated almost entirely in video. TV OTA and TV OTT together captured $1.2 billion of that increase, reinforcing broadcast and streaming video's role as a preferred vehicle for political campaigns.
Mobile Keeps Compounding, and AI Reshapes Search
Mobile remains the largest local media category tracked by BIA, projected to grow to $45.3 billion in 2026 (excluding political), an 8.9% year-over-year increase. This growth comes as competition intensifies in A.I.-fueled search advertising, a category that local advertisers have traditionally relied on to reach consumers across mobile devices.
“Google, OpenAI, Amazon, and Apple are all positioning themselves to capture a larger share of advertising tied to AI-powered search,” said Mike Boland, Executive in Residence, BIA Advisory Services. “Google’s Gemini is increasingly becoming an extension of its advertising business, while OpenAI, Amazon, and Apple are developing their own approaches to monetize search and discovery. For local advertisers, the bigger question is where consumer intent will emerge and which platforms will capture it. Mobile will be a critical battleground as that shift unfolds.”
BIA's first look at 2027 projects total local ad revenue of $186.5 billion, essentially flat versus 2026. About $9 billion in underlying, nonpolitical growth is expected to nearly offset an $8.6 billion decline in political spending as the election cycle ends. Political spending is projected to fall to approximately $1.1 billion in the 2027 off-cycle year.
Mele said, “Political spending will decline sharply after the midterms, but the underlying nonpolitical market has continued to grow and should offset much of that decline. We expect the overall local advertising market to remain essentially flat in 2027, with continued growth across core categories helping to support the market in an off-cycle year.”