An AI-based weather model, specifically the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts’ Artificial Intelligence Forecasting System (AIFS), has predicted a potential hurricane approaching the U.S. East Coast around August 21, 2025, based on tropical waves emerging from the African coast.
This forecast, highlighted in a Forbes article by Marshall Shepherd, has gained attention on social media, but meteorologists urge caution.
Here are three reasons to approach this prediction skeptically, as outlined in the article:
- Long-Range Forecast Uncertainty: The forecast is for 11 days out, a timeframe where even advanced models lose reliability. A 2019 Pennsylvania State University study noted that model accuracy degrades significantly beyond 10 days for traditional physics-based models like the ECMWF and GFS. While AI models like AIFS operate differently, using pattern recognition rather than complex equations, their long-range predictions remain unproven, especially at lower resolution (31 km vs. 9 km for physics-based models).
- Model Discrepancies: The AI model predicts a hurricane nearing the East Coast, but other models differ significantly. The American GFS model shows no storm, and the standard ECMWF model places a potential storm far offshore. These inconsistencies highlight the variability in long-range forecasts, especially for tropical systems sensitive to small atmospheric changes. The AIFS’s aggressive outlook is an early test of its capabilities, but it’s not yet part of the National Hurricane Center’s official consensus models.
- Ensemble Spread and Social Media Hype: The forecast shared on social media often reflects a single deterministic run, not the full range of possibilities. The AIFS ensemble, which generates 51 scenarios, shows a wide spread of potential tracks and intensities, indicating high uncertainty.
The Atlantic hurricane season is entering its peak (August–October), with NOAA predicting an above-average season of 13–19 named storms.