CRS: Using Data to Discover The Hits

"Cracking The Code: Using Data To Discover The Hits" took advantage of Stone Door Media Lab's Jeff Green and MusicMetric's Mark Tindle to identify data that can predict chart success, according to Country Aircheck.

Findings include:

• Increases in Facebook Fans, SoundCloud plays, Shazam tags, VEVO plays, Shazam tags per Radio Spin and BitTorrent file sharing were early online drivers for chart success.
• Shazam and sales-per-spin ratios are powerful in predicting airplay success at an early stage. (The data also supports a link between being No. 1 most added and reaching No. 1.)
• The average chart-peak of a No. 1 Most-Added single is 6, while the average peak of a No. 2 Most-Added single is 12. Both outperform the average peak of all country singles, which is 20.

"There is no foolproof method for determining probabilities for hits, but we're seeing that data can provide a competitive edge in identifying a new single's potential many weeks earlier in the artist development process," said Green. "These statistics prove that what many thought were hunches are really true." Green was also able to identify spin thresholds necessary for singles to reach familiarity in specific dayparts.