Brian Wieser, PRG’s senior research analyst, forecasts those declines will continue through the rest of 2015, before leveling out in 2016, according to Media Life.
In fact, local advertising has not seen year-to-year gains for a full year since 2010.
“Locally oriented media including radio and local TV fared worse than we thought in the quarter,” Wieser notes.
- Spot TV fell 3 percent during first quarter, to $4.18 billion. Pivotal does not include Olympic or political spending, so this reflects an actual trend away from TV advertising and not just tough year-to-year comparisons.
- Local radio too was off, falling 5 percent to $2.8 billion. The losses accelerated from 2014, when local radio was off 3.3 percent.
- Newspapers, which have been sliding for years, were down another 10 percent in first quarter, to $3.25 billion.
To varying degrees, each of these three media have suffered from the encroachment of digital.
Local digital spending rose by 13 percent, to $1.46 billion, in first quarter. By 2017, Pivotal forecasts, spending will hit $8 billion; double what it was in 2010.
But other factors are also hurting TV, radio and newspapers. Some small businesses have folded since the recession. Others are barely staying afloat and have cut way back on advertising or eliminated it entirely.