BIA Advisory Service Update: Digital Pacing Revenue

According to the latest forecast by BIA Advisory Services, local advertising revenue in the United States is projected to reach a substantial $171 billion in 2025, excluding political spending. This figure represents a notable increase of 6.1% compared to the previous year, 2024, with the growth primarily driven by a surge in digital media spending. The rise in digital advertising underscores the ongoing shift in the media landscape, as businesses increasingly allocate their budgets toward online platforms to reach their target audiences effectively.

When political advertising is factored into the equation, the total estimated local ad spend for 2025 climbs slightly to $171.4 billion. However, this combined figure reflects a modest decline of 0.5% from 2024 levels. The slight downturn can be attributed to the unusually high volume of political advertising that characterized 2024, likely influenced by major election cycles, which typically inflate ad spending in even-numbered years. In contrast, 2025, as an off-cycle year, is expected to see a natural reduction in political ad investments.

BIA’s latest projections include minor refinements to its earlier 2025 estimates. Specifically, the forecast for ad revenue excluding political spending has been revised upward by a marginal 0.03%, while the total local ad revenue, including political contributions, has been adjusted upward by 0.1%. These tweaks reflect BIA’s efforts to fine-tune its predictions in response to evolving market dynamics and newly available data.

In a news release accompanying the forecast, Nicole Ovadia, Vice President of Forecasting and Analysis at BIA Advisory Services, commented on the findings. “Our latest forecast indicates that local advertising is showing resilience, despite the ongoing changes in the economic landscape,” she stated. Ovadia emphasized that while core advertising spending—outside of political cycles—is expected to remain steady, the firm has recalibrated its outlook to account for several key influences. These include macroeconomic factors such as fluctuating interest rates and shifts in consumer sentiment, as well as significant changes in how audiences consume media. The latter, in particular, has fueled the robust growth of digital advertising, as businesses adapt to trends like increased online engagement and the proliferation of streaming platforms, social media, and mobile usage.

The forecast highlights the adaptability of the local advertising sector, which continues to evolve amid technological advancements and economic uncertainties. As digital channels increasingly dominate the media ecosystem, they are poised to play an even more central role in driving advertising revenue growth in the years ahead.