NOAA Forecasts Scorching Summer for Most of U-S

Above-average temperatures are forecast across the vast majority of the United States this summer, according to the latest seasonal outlook released May 21 by NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center.

The June-July-August map is dominated by orange and red shading, indicating elevated probabilities of hotter-than-normal conditions from the West through the Great Plains, Lower Mississippi Valley, and East Coast. The highest confidence for above-normal temperatures centers on the Pacific Northwest. Above-normal temperatures are also favored for most of Alaska.

Only the Great Lakes and Upper Midwest appear in white, signaling equal chances of above-, near-, or below-normal temperatures.

USA Today reports Private forecasters at AccuWeather’s summer 2026 forecast agrees, predicting a hot season for nearly the entire contiguous United States with almost no areas expected to average below historical norms.

“A hot summer is predicted across most of the contiguous United States in 2026,” said AccuWeather meteorologist Brian Lada.

The official NOAA outlook does not predict exact temperatures but shows probabilities. Elevated odds of above-normal heat across most regions point to a higher likelihood of frequent heat waves and warmer-than-average seasonal conditions.

Heightened wildfire and heat risks in the West

The most intense heat is expected across California, Idaho, Montana, Nevada, Oregon, Utah, Washington, and Wyoming. AccuWeather warns this will fuel a significant wildfire threat in the Northwest and Great Basin.

“Northwest and Great Basin wildfires can be destructive this summer, along with impressive heat waves and increasing drought conditions,” said AccuWeather meteorologist Brandon Buckingham.

NOAA noted that strong heat signals in Oregon and Washington are consistent with a developing El Niño pattern.

Eastern cities will not escape the warmth 

AccuWeather forecasts the number of 90-degree days to be near or above average in Boston, Chicago, New York City, and Philadelphia.

Midwest faces more uncertainty

The Midwest is largely marked “Equal Chances” on NOAA’s map, meaning climate signals are weak and temperatures could swing above, near, or below normal.

“Equal chances of below, near, or above-normal temperatures are forecast for the Midwest, where a more variable temperature pattern is expected this summer,” said NOAA meteorologist Brad Pugh.

Later in the season, the outlook slightly tilts toward below-normal temperatures in parts of the Midwest due to El Niño influences.

El Niño expected to shape the broader pattern

Forecasters say El Niño is likely to develop early this summer and exert growing influence on U.S. weather through the remainder of 2026. The pattern is expected to increase hurricane activity in the eastern Pacific while suppressing the Atlantic hurricane season to below-average levels overall.