BIA Advisory Services has revised its 2026 U.S. Local Advertising Forecast (released in Q4 2025), projecting total local ad revenue to reach $184.5 billion, reflecting approximately 8.1% year-over-year growth compared with 2025. The increase over the prior estimate of $181.7 billion is driven by stronger-than-expected performance in mobile (particularly social), video, and streaming, political ad spend, and advertising technology.
Excluding political advertising, the 2026 forecast is now $176.1 billion, up from the previous $172.7 billion.
“Our updated forecast reflects continued momentum in social and connected and over the top television, which are capturing a growing share of local advertising budgets,” said Senan Mele, VP of Forecasting and Data Analysis, BIA Advisory Services. “At the same time, traditional media such as broadcast television, cable and radio remain essential, providing the scale, credibility, and local connection that advertisers rely on to drive awareness and demand.”
Political advertising will drive key spending this year. BIA projects approximately $8.4 billion in local political spending, creating substantial revenue opportunities across broadcast television, linear cable, CTV/OTT, radio, and direct mail.
BIA’s forecast also points to two growth factors driving the local advertising economy: near-term revenue from political spending and long-term growth fueled by key verticals, including real estate, restaurants, travel, retail, and financial services. Total local advertising is projected to exceed $222 billion by 2030, according to BIA’s forecast.
“The local advertising marketplace continues to reflect a K-shaped consumer economy,” said Rick Ducey, Managing Director, BIA Advisory Services. “Stronger spending from higher-income households is supporting discretionary categories like travel, leisure, and automotive, while value-oriented spending is shaping demand in retail, restaurants, and essential services.”
The forecast update also underscores the ongoing transformation of the media mix. Growth is being driven by digital channels – particularly mobile, social, and connected TV – while traditional media continues to play a critical role in delivering reach and brand impact.