Hundreds of children at summer campsites along the Guadalupe River in Kerr County were at risk early Friday when a catastrophic flash flood killed at least 59 people, a tragedy that has prompted a continued search for a group of missing children from one of the region’s most popular camps.
In the aftermath, questions are focusing on the accuracy of weather forecasting, the area’s flash flood alert system and whether camp staff were properly notified of the danger.
State and local officials in Kerr County say that much of what happened was not in the National Weather Service forecast and that evacuating the campgrounds likely could not have happened fast enough and may have posed more danger.
Meteorologists say the official National Weather Service forecast gave ample notice for people to get themselves – and others – out of harm’s way.
Were officials prepared for historic and catastrophic flooding?
State and local officials say nothing could have prepared them for the Guadalupe River to rise as quickly as it did.
Kerrville City Manager Dalton Rice said he went for a run around 3:30 a.m. Friday along the river and felt light rain but saw no signs of danger. Within 90 minutes, he returned to the same area with the city’s fire chief to see that a park area that was the planned site of a city July 4 celebration was under water.
The water had risen about 20 to 25 feet within that hour and a half, he said.
“We almost got stuck,” Rice told the Houston Chronicle.
🚨 FOX NEWS ALERT: 18 adults and 14 children now confirmed deceased after the Flash Floods in Texas, bringing the total up to 32 deaths.
— TV News Now (@TVNewsNow) July 5, 2025
Pray for the Families. 🙏🏼❤️ pic.twitter.com/1rTdqsCNlY
What had the National Weather Service predicted?
Forecasters in the Austin-New Braunfels National Weather Service office issued a flash flood watch at 1:18 p.m. Thursday, said Troy Kimmel, an Austin-based meteorologist and former lecturer at the University of Texas who specializes in meteorological emergency management.
The watch bulletin said “you should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible flood warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding develop.”
In the overnight hours, rain settled in Kerr County.
“The sky fell,” Kimmel said. “It was still the middle of the night, but that does not mean people should not be monitoring.”
In Kerr County,
— Jakey (@JacobBaker613) July 5, 2025
Kerrville Texas.
The Texas Hill Country flood
Timelapse flooding of the Llano River on July 4th! pic.twitter.com/QdAOjcxd2w
Flash flood warnings for parts of the Hill Country began at 11:41 p.m. Thursday. The warning for central Kerr County was issued at 1:14 a.m. Friday and remained valid until 4:15 a.m.
“Life-threatening flash flooding of creeks, streams, urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses,” it warned.
Kimmel acknowledged that predicted rainfall totals fell short of what happened, but “at the same time the watches and warnings were there.”
Kimmel concluded, “the weather service did its job. As a user and partner of those people, they know I will criticize them, but I am not going to do that at this point. To say this is something they did not expect, that tells me their emergency plan did not work.”
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