Report: Radio To Get $1.9B In Political Advertising

Political advertising is forecast to hit a record $11.4 billion in 2016, 20% more than the last comparable Presidential Election year of 2012. But, according to Borrell Associates,  that’s just part of the story. In reality, the games have already begun. Adding what will be spent on next year’s contests in 2015, political advertising still holds a whopping $16.5 billion. While national elections will draw all the attention, almost half of that money will be spent at the local level, delivering messages about candidates and issues concerning governors, state legislative districts, ballot issues, and regional and city governments.

As has always been the case, TV gets the front seat on this roller-coaster. Despite the allure of digital media, things like banner ads and search advertising don’t do as good a job as television commercials persuading the electorate to like or dislike a candidate or a particular issue.

Still, the attraction to digital media is growing and will break the $1 billion level for the frst time in 2016. That’s 9.5% of total spending − a far cry from the 30% to 50% of budgets that other ad categories earmark for digital media.

Borrell projects radio will see about $1.19 Billion of the $16.5 billion spent on political advertising or a 7.2% share of the total. That puts radio fourth on the list behind newspapers at $1.4 Billion (8.2%, cable at $1.5 Billion (8.9%), and Broadcast TV at $8.5 Billion (51.9%).

Some states will see bigger bounties. Media companies in big states such as California and Texas will see $1.2 billion and $896 million, respectively. But smaller states where Senate and other races are hotly contested will see big spending as well.

These include Virginia ($459 million), Florida ($800 million) and Colorado ($295 million).

A year away from the party conventions and 15 months away from the big Election Day of 2016, the party has already started. This report offers forecasts and analysis on that spending, detailing which media will likely beneft the most (and which are losing out) from the impending political show.