Harker Research Unveils It's Format Winners Of 2014

Richard Harker

Which radio formats were the big winners in 2014? You may be surprised.

While Nielsen relies on their PPM national database to identify winners and losers, Harker Research believes there’s a better way to determines format success.

Nielsen numbers are unduly influenced by a few large markets. Richard Harker believes a better way is to track the performance of all stations in a format, determining the percentage of stations that are gaining share.

The winners are the formats where a majority of stations are growing. The losers are the formats where a majority of stations are losing share.

To determine the winning formats of 2014 we compared October through December 2014 to the same months in 2013. Harker excluded the Christmas book because of the distortions it causes.

Using the same format designations that Nielsen uses, and excluding formats with too few stations to reliably make a determination, Harker ranked formats by the percentage of stations that gained share, with the top format having the highest percentage of stations ahead of where they were this same time in 2013.

Now, what happens to a single station in a top five market can cancel out what’s happening to a half dozen stations in smaller markets.

Here’s the problem according to Harker:

Let’s say a new format signs on in Austin, New York, Pittsburgh, Raleigh, and Sacramento. The format takes off in all but New York. It’s a huge hit everywhere else, but bombs in New York.

So is the format a winner or loser?

Harker call it a winner. Four out of five stations in the format are doing well. That means 80% of the stations have bested their previous numbers.

According to Nielsen’s way of looking at it, it could appear to be a failure. New York has something like 4,000 meter panelists, while the other four markets have that number of panelists combined.

If the station in New York tanks and its shares collapse, it could cancel out all the gains in Austin, Pittsburgh, Raleigh, and Sacramento.

And consider the opposite. Let’s say the New York station is a huge success but the stations in the other markets aren’t.

Nielsen could conclude that the format is a winner when four out of five stations are failing.

It’s a hypothetical example, but it illustrates how large markets have a huge impact on Nielsen’s “national” trends.

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