Traditional Media Braces For 6% Ad Drop

Traditional media will see a 6% decline in advertising next year -- all due to unfavorable comparisons for TV networks and stations in 2016, and poorer-than-expected newspaper results.

Revising an earlier estimate that was slightly down, MoffettNathanson Research now says traditional media will slip 5.8% in 2017, following a 0.8% gain in 2016.

Overall, when including digital media, U.S. advertising is forecast to see a 2.4% increase in 2017, following a 7.1% improvement this year.

According to Mediapost, Total TV in 2016 is expected to gain 5.5% this year -- slipping to a 3.7% next year. Local TV stations will see a 9.5% rise this year and an 8% fall next year. Broadcast networks will end 2016 up 8%, dropping 4.6% in 2016. TV will have tougher comparisons due to high contributions from the Summer Olympics and political ad spending in 2016.

Newspapers will sink to 10.5% this year and 8% next year -- a major area of decline along with TV stations. (MoffettNathanson projected an early estimated 6% drop for newspapers).

In 2017, consumer magazines will drop 3%, while local cable will be down 3%, with radio slipping 1.5% and syndicated TV, down 1%. Outdoor looks to eke out a 1% gain in 2017.

Digital media will continue to bound along at double-digit gains -- up 19.6% in 2016 and 16.1% in 2017. MoffettNathanson has pulled back slightly on digital, with a previously estimated increase of 17% for next year.

Google and Facebook will continue to dominate in digital, as well as influence all U.S. advertising. In the first half of 2016, Google contributed 42% to the overall advertising growth; Facebook realized 35%.