CA Recall: Tide Turning Against Newsom, Talker Larry Elder Leading

A new Inside California Politics/Emerson College poll released on Thursday reports that Governor Gavin Newsom is rapidly losing ground in the recall election, while radio host Larry Elder has taken a commanding lead among all recall candidates, reports The California Globe.

According to the poll, which was conducted based on a sampling of 1,000 registered voters in California on a 2.9% margin of error, Governor Newsom now only has about 48% of voters wanting to keep him in office, as compared to 43% of voters willing to vote for his recall. 9% of voters remain undecided.

Larry Elder

Contrasted with the May UC Berkeley survey that found that 49% of voters wanted to keep him in office versus 36% wanting to recall him, the new Emerson poll has shown that not only has Newsom lost ground to recall supporters during late Spring and early Summer, but he has also lost a little support.

The July poll also found that Newsom’s popularity has gone down significantly since May, dipping below the 50% mark for the first time since February. Newsom currently sits at a 49% approval rating, down from 52% two months ago. His disapproval rating has also gone up to 42%, closely mirroring the recall poll percentages.

When asked about rating the Governor on a wide range of topics from his handling of the COVID-19 pandemic to homelessness, the highest percentage chosen for each one by voters was “poor,” the lowest rating possible. In particular, his handling of the homelessness crisis was met with the strongest response, with a whopping 52% of voters ranking his performance as poor, and only 25% saying fair, 16% good and only 7% excellent.

As for recall candidates, radio personality Larry Elder stormed ahead of the polling with 16%, beating out second-place finishers, former San Diego Mayor Kevin Faulconer and 2018 Gubernatorial candidate John Cox, who both scored a respective 6% of the vote, both down from higher percentages scored in the May Berkeley poll when there were fewer candidates to choose from. Assemblyman Kevin Kiley (R- Rocklin) and reality TV star Caitlyn Jenner came in a distant 3rd, tied with 4% each.

Elder, who had a brief court battle with Secretary of State Shirley Weber this week over being allowed on the ballot, is now widely seen as the frontrunner.