Report Ad Spend Expected To Slow

A fresh projection suggests that President Trump’s economic policies will hinder U.S. advertising growth through at least 2027.  

Why it’s significant: Analysts had braced for some uncertainty with the new administration, but the economic turbulence has exceeded expectations, says Brian Wieser, a leading advertising analyst. In particular, the president’s trade policies are creating bigger disruptions to supply chains and corporate strategies than anticipated.  

Current landscape: In a forecast released Tuesday, Wieser downgraded his outlook for U.S. ad growth starting in 2025, predicting a modest 3.6% rise this year (excluding political ads), compared to his earlier estimate of 4.5%. According to Axios, Wieser believer the slowdown is expected to hit harder in the second half of 2025 as new policies fully take effect. He foresees similarly tempered growth through 2027 as the economy adapts, with a potential rebound in 2028 driven by the Olympics boosting ad spending.  

Brian Wieser

Perspective: While this growth isn’t dismal by historical standards, Wieser notes it falls short of the robust rates the industry grew used to, which were unsustainable. The 2010s brought a boom in ad expansion thanks to the internet, but now, with digital advertising maturing and the pandemic’s aftermath lingering, publishers are grappling with a slower reality.  

Example: Media companies are feeling the pinch, with ongoing layoffs signaling efforts to cope with a weaker ad market. This month, Disney’s ABC News Group and Entertainment Networks cut about 200 jobs, CNN shed 200 positions, and MSNBC let go of 99 staffers. Outlets like The Wall Street Journal, Dotdash, Scripps, the Washington Post, HuffPost, and Forbes have also faced reductions in 2025.  

Broader view: Political ads have fueled growth for U.S. publishers, especially local broadcasters, over the past decade. But Wieser predicts a dip in this area due to fewer competitive congressional races ahead. Inflation is also squeezing consumer spending on subscriptions and experiences—movie ticket sales, for instance, lag behind 2024 levels, and theaters may never fully bounce back from the pandemic.  

What’s next: There’s cautious optimism that not all proposed policies will come to fruition, offering some relief. Meanwhile, threats to curb pharmaceutical TV ads remain unfulfilled and are likely to face legal hurdles if pursued.