NWS Shortages Could Impact Forecasts

The National Weather Service (NWS), part of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), is facing significant challenges due to staff reductions initiated by the Trump administration, leading to what the agency calls “degraded operations.” An internal document, detailed in New York Times article, outlines how severe shortages of meteorologists and other employees could impair weather forecasting and other critical operations.

Key Points:

Staffing Cuts: Over 500 NOAA employees, including nearly 200 from NWS forecasting offices, have left this year, with an additional 300 expected to depart under a resignation offer. This follows a broader push by the Trump administration to reduce federal workforce size, with NOAA facing a potential 20% staff cut (about 2,600 of its 13,000 employees).

Impact on Operations: The NWS anticipates fewer forecast updates fine-tuned by specialists, relying instead on automated computer models (similar to phone weather apps), which may be less accurate without human oversight. The agency may also reduce or suspend weather balloon launches, critical for gathering atmospheric data, and halt testing of new forecasting technologies.

Vacancy Rates: Field offices could face vacancy rates up to 35%, exacerbating existing understaffing. Nearly half of the NWS’s 122 forecast offices have vacancy rates around 20%, double the rate from a decade ago. Critical offices in cities like Houston, Miami, and Omaha are particularly affected, with some missing key leadership roles.

Specific Reductions: 

• The Sacramento NWS office has stopped answering public phone calls, limited social media updates, and reduced forecast frequency due to staffing shortages.
• Weather balloon launches have been suspended or limited at sites in Alaska, Nebraska, South Dakota, and other locations, potentially reducing forecast accuracy by about 15%.
• Spanish-language storm warning translations have been paused due to a lapsed AI contract.

Public Safety Concerns: Meteorologists and scientists warn that these cuts could compromise timely warnings for severe weather events like tornadoes and hurricanes, endangering lives. For example, the Louisville NWS office couldn’t survey tornado damage during a recent outbreak due to staffing constraints, prioritizing immediate warnings instead.

Proposed Budget Cuts: The administration’s budget proposal for the next fiscal year would cut NOAA’s funding by 27%, potentially eliminating most climate research while maintaining flat NWS funding.
Public and Expert Reaction: Meteorologists, climate scientists, and lawmakers, including Rep. Zoe Lofgren and Sen. Amy Klobuchar, have criticized the cuts as reckless, arguing they undermine lifesaving services. Protests under the “Stand Up for Science” banner have occurred in cities like Norman, Oklahoma.