The first major poll after Vice President Kamala Harris' lone sit-down interview has shown a "reversion back toward Mr. Trump," as Donald Trump leads The New York Times/Siena College poll going into Tuesday's lone debate.
Trump's lead nationally among likely voters is just 1 point (48%-47%), within the margin of error, but even the Times noted Trump's "support remains remarkably resilient" despite positive media buzz after Harris taking the Democrat crown from President Joe Biden and the Democratic National Convention.
Notably, Democrats historically have an edge in support in national polls due to the large strangleholds on registered voters in the largest blue states of California and New York that do not impact the Electoral College but can skew the popular vote and a national poll.
"Whatever the explanation, the Times/Siena poll would be one of the first opportunities to pick up a reversion back toward Mr. Trump," according to The New York Times poll analysis.
- Among the other strengths Trump showed in the poll, according to Times' analysis:
- Trump is more favorable now than he was when he was elected in 2016 and the incumbent in 2020.
- Trump has a 5-point lead on Harris on whichever the most important issue was to a voter. Pollsters asked a two-part question: 1. What's the most important issue; 2. Is Harris or Trump better on it.
- Trump "occupies the center." While a near majority say Trump is neither "too far" from the middle, a nearly majority says Harris is too far to the left.
The Times/Siena College poll of 1,695 voters nationwide was conducted Sept. 3-6, and the margin of error is plus or minus 2.8 percentage points, according to Newsmax.
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