SAG-AFTRA’s AI Deal: A $5 Billion Gamble

SAG-AFTRA, the union representing 160,000 actors and media artists, has signed a landmark agreement with AI startup Narrativ, an online marketplace where brands create audio ads using artificial intelligence. Forbes reports this deal has the potential to reshape the multi billion voice acting industry.

Under this agreement, SAG-AFTRA members have the option to license a digital replica of their voice to Narrativ for use in audio advertising. The union and Narrativ have negotiated terms that address informed consent, compensation, and other essential AI-related protections. “Not all members will be interested in the opportunities that licensing their digital voice replicas might offer, and that’s understandable. But for those who do, you now have a safe option,” said SAG-AFTRA National Executive Director & Chief Negotiator Duncan Crabtree-Ireland.

This agreement is promoted as an ethical framework for AI in voice replication. But could it could also accelerate the shift from human to artificial voices, raising critical questions about the future role of human voice in media.

The voice acting market, valued at $4.4 billion in 2019 and projected to reach $5.2 billion by 2027, now faces a paradigm shift. While Narrativ has stated that its deal with SAG-AFTRA preserves talent rights and minimum compensation - with voice actors earning between $385 for a 4-week license and $2,420 for a 21-month term - the broader market may react differently in the future.

Industry experts project a potential 30-50% reduction in traditional voice acting jobs within the next decade, as AI-generated voices become more sophisticated and cost-effective. This shift could translate to a $1.5-$2.5 billion market transformation, with funds redirecting from actor salaries to AI development and licensing.

To illustrate this potential industry-wide impact, consider a hypothetical scenario: Currently, a voice actor might earn $500-$2000 per commercial voiceover. In the future, the same actor might receive a one-time payment of $5000-$10,000 for their voice rights, but see a 50% reduction in booking frequency. Ten years down the line, only top-tier actors may retain regular work, with the majority of the industry facing severe financial constraints. The devil is in the detail, has the Union effectively considered the consequences of AI “training’?

At the heart of this deal lies the value of voice data. Tech analysts estimate that a comprehensive voice dataset could be worth millions in AI development. For instance, a single actor's voice data, priced at $10,000 today, could contribute to AI models potentially generating hundreds of thousands in revenue over time. Consider an AI company that acquires 100 voice actors' data through this deal. They can use these voices not just for direct replication, but to train their AI to understand the nuances of human speech, emotional inflection, and even regional accents. Over time, this could lead to an AI capable of generating entirely new, realistic voices without any additional human input.