Demographics Indicate Two Americas Emerging

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The Census Bureau just released a new set of state population estimates. These estimates revealed a definite pattern: there are definitely two different regions within the United States, each with their own pattern of growth. For simplicity’s sake, B-I is calling these “America1” and “America2.” Neither is meant to be pejorative, but Business Insider thinks these labels reflect the role these regions will take in American life going forward.

For clarity’s sake, in this definition, America1 is largely made up of the Northeast, the Midwest, the Mississippi Valley, the Northern Plains and Alaska. America2 is the coastal Southeast from the Mason Dixon line south, as well as Kentucky, Tennessee and Alabama, as well as Texas, much of the West and Hawaii.

According to Census data, America1 has only grown about 1.5% since 2010 (a gain of just over 2 million people), while America2 has grown nearly 5% (a gain of over 8 million people). This is due to two main factors: natural change (births minus deaths), and net migration (international immigration plus domestic migration).

Since the Census, America2’s natural population change has been twice America1’s, giving it some major demographic tailwinds. In addition, America2’s international immigration rate has been about 40% higher than America1’s since 2010. Finally, and perhaps most importantly, the domestic migration rate from America1 into America2 has gained the latter region an additional 1.6 million people since 2010. This means, on a net basis, America2 has gained over 4 million people from migration since 2010, while America1 has only gained about 46,000!