U.S. antitrust authorities are poised to challenge either a Netflix–Warner Bros. Discovery or Paramount–Warner Bros. Discovery merger, with experts and lawmakers warning that both deals would severely damage competition in the American streaming market.
WBD is the target of two blockbuster bids: an $83 billion offer from Netflix and a hostile $108.4 billion all-cash counter from Paramount Global (backed by Skydance and investors including Jared Kushner-linked funds). Either transaction would create a streaming giant controlling 35–45% of U.S. premium video-on-demand subscribers and an outsized share of Hollywood’s most valuable film, TV, and sports rights.
Regulators are almost certain to intervene. The deals exceed the 30% concentration threshold that the 2023 Merger Guidelines treat as presumptively illegal, and both the Department of Justice and FTC have recent track records of blocking media consolidation that harms consumers and creators. President Trump has already signaled personal involvement, calling a Netflix–WBD combination “a problem,” while senators from both parties — Elizabeth Warren and Mike Lee among them — have publicly demanded rigorous reviews.
Analysts and antitrust advocates predict the following harms if either merger closes without major concessions:
- Higher subscriber prices as the new entity exploits “must-have” content bundles
- Reduced bargaining power and residuals for writers, actors, and directors
- Fewer distribution outlets for independent films and smaller networks
- Diminished incentives for innovation in a market dominated by two or three scaled players
Market data underscores the risk: Netflix already holds 30–35% of U.S. streaming subscribers, Disney roughly 25%, and Amazon around 20%. Adding WBD’s Max (10–15%) or Paramount’s assets would tip the balance decisively toward oligopoly.
Wall Street now assigns less than 25% odds to either deal closing in its current form, with prolonged litigation or forced divestitures the most likely outcomes. The saga highlights a bitter irony for media executives who routinely demand “regulatory certainty”: in today’s environment, massive streaming mergers face anything but clear, predictable rules.