The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is a U.S. federal agency under the Department of Commerce responsible for understanding and predicting changes in the Earth's environment, including weather, oceans, and climate.
Within NOAA, the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) serves as the primary hub for long-range climate forecasting. Based in College Park, Maryland, the CPC is a division of the National Weather Service (NWS) and employs a team of meteorologists, climatologists, and scientists—often referred to as "federal forecasters"—who analyze vast datasets from satellites, weather stations, ocean buoys, and computer models to produce probabilistic outlooks for temperature, precipitation, and drought conditions months in advance.
The CPC updates its seasonal outlooks monthly, but the annual winter outlook is a flagship product released each October, covering the meteorological winter period of December through February (DJF).
The winter outlook is part of the CPC's broader seasonal forecast suite, which provides a "climatological perspective" rather than day-to-day predictions. It assigns probabilities (e.g., 40-60% chance) for above-, near-, or below-average conditions across the U.S. and beyond, based on historical patterns and current climate signals. Unlike short-term weather forecasts, it doesn't predict specific storm tracks, snowfall totals, or exact temperatures—those are too variable beyond 7-10 days. Instead, it highlights regional trends to guide preparedness.