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A Goldman Sachs report, part of its "Music in the Air" series, forecasts that music streaming services will implement price increases every 12 to 24 months in mature markets, a trend driven by the need to boost revenue amid a slowing growth rate in subscriber numbers.
The report highlights that music streaming prices have historically lagged behind video streaming, which has seen U.S. subscription prices rise by about 15% every two years over the past decade, while music streaming prices remained relatively static. However, recent industry moves—such as Spotify and Apple Music raising prices in 2023—suggest a shift, with minimal impact on subscriber churn, indicating platforms may have more pricing power than previously assumed.
The report also projects significant growth in global on-demand music streaming subscribers, estimating an increase from 752 million in 2024 to 1.5 billion by 2035, nearly doubling the user base. This growth is expected to be driven primarily by emerging markets, which accounted for 60% of new subscribers in 2024 despite only 8% penetration of the internet population in these regions.
Additional revenue drivers include superfan monetization, with Goldman estimating that 20% of paid subscribers (superfans) could generate an extra $4.3–$4.5 billion annually by 2026–2030 through premium offerings, as superfans spend roughly double the average user on music-related purchases.
The report also notes the potential for new payment models, such as user-centric or artist-centric systems, to address issues like streaming fraud and better align payouts with artist value.
However, Goldman Sachs revised its streaming revenue forecasts downward for 2025 ($31.4 billion) and 2026 ($33.6 billion) due to a 2024 slowdown in mature markets and lower ad-supported streaming growth. Despite this, the long-term outlook remains bullish.