Texas Hill Country Flooding Much Worse Than Expected

At least 81 people, including 14 children, perished in central Texas due to sudden flash floods that struck on Friday morning.

A storm dumped a month's worth of rain in just hours, leading to over 850 rescues on Friday and Saturday. As of Saturday afternoon, 27 young campers from a Christian girls’ camp along the Guadalupe River remained missing.

Some local and state officials, echoed by social media pundits, criticized the National Weather Service (NWS) for inadequate forecasts, attributing the tragedy to budget cuts at the NWS and its parent agency, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. 

However, meteorologists interviewed by WIRED argue that the NWS accurately predicted the flood risk and could not have anticipated the storm’s extreme intensity.  They emphasize that the NWS’s forecasts highlight the need for sustained funding for the agency.

The previous weekend, meteorologists noted the potential for heavy rain after Tropical Storm Barry hit Mexico, sending moisture northward. “A tropical system pumps moisture, setting the stage for heavy rainfall,” said Chris Vagasky, a certified meteorologist in Wisconsin. 

By Monday, the NWS San Antonio office forecasted “downpours” and nighttime heavy rain later in the week, predicting up to 7 inches of rain in isolated areas by Thursday.

Timelapse flooding in Texas. Nature is powerful and dangerous pic.twitter.com/nuDf5S0ez3

— Justin Hart (@justin_hart) July 5, 2025

The San Antonio and Hill Country regions frequently experience floods, but Friday’s storm was unprecedented, with the Guadalupe River surging over 20 feet in hours, reaching its second-highest recorded level. 

Kerr County Judge Rob Kelly noted, “We deal with floods regularly, but we had no reason to expect this magnitude.”Flash floods are common in Texas, where 8 inches of rain can fall any day, according to Houston-based meteorologist Matt Lanza. He highlighted the challenge of conveying the severity of rare storms to public officials unfamiliar with meteorology. “It’s hard to warn effectively and get officials to grasp how quickly conditions can escalate,” Lanza said.

Meteorologists defend the NWS, noting it issued a flood watch Thursday afternoon, a flash flood warning by 1 a.m. Friday, and a flash flood emergency by 4:30 a.m. “The Weather Service was proactive and got the message out,” Vagasky said. The incident underscores the importance of heeding heavy rain warnings in Texas, where vigilance is critical.

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