Weather watchers are expecting a forecast shift in the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, predicting increased activity starting in August, according to USAToday.
Despite a relatively quiet start with only three named storms—Andrea, Barry, and Chantal—the season is poised for a significant uptick, driven by several meteorological factors.
🌩Key Warning Signs for an Active August
Favorable Tropical Environment: Meteorologists, including Phil Klotzbach from Colorado State University and Michael Lowry from WPLG-TV, note that the tropical environment in the Atlantic is becoming more conducive for hurricane activity. Conditions such as reduced wind shear and enhanced large-scale rising motion are expected to support storm development in the coming weeks.
The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), an eastward-moving disturbance of clouds, rainfall, winds, and pressure, is expected to cross into the Atlantic in August, enhancing conditions for storm formation, particularly in the second and third weeks.
Increased Tropical Wave Activity: Tropical waves originating from Africa, which often seed major Atlantic storms, have become more robust. Long-range forecast models indicate a busier outlook for early August, with stronger waves emerging in the Central Atlantic and potential development near the Caribbean Islands.
Historical Climatology: August typically marks the beginning of the peak hurricane season, with the first hurricane forming on average around August 11. Over 95% of major hurricane activity and 93% of Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE)—a measure of storm intensity and duration—occur after early August.
The article emphasizes that hurricanes are rare in June and July due to atmospheric hurdles like dry air and high wind shear, but these barriers diminish in August, allowing storms to form rapidly.
Ocean and Atmospheric Conditions: Above-average Atlantic Ocean temperatures set the stage for an active season, as noted by NOAA’s 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook. Warmer waters provide the heat energy needed for storm intensification.