The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has released its 2025 Atlantic hurricane season outlook on May 22, 2025, during a news conference at the Jefferson Parish Emergency Operations Center in Gretna, Louisiana.
The forecast predicts an above-normal season with a 60% chance of higher-than-average activity, driven by ENSO-neutral conditions and an active West African monsoon. NOAA expects 13-19 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher), 6-10 hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), and 3-5 major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher, winds of 111 mph or higher). The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 30, 2025.
For the Central Pacific, NOAA’s outlook, released on May 15, 2025, forecasts a near-to-below-average season with 1-4 tropical cyclones (including tropical depressions, storms, and hurricanes) compared to a normal season’s 3-4. This prediction is based on neutral ENSO conditions and cooler sea surface temperatures. The Central Pacific season also spans June 1 to November 30.
NOAA emphasized preparedness, noting that even a below-normal season can bring impactful storms. New forecasting improvements for 2025 include extended 72-hour hurricane-force wind field forecasts, potential tropical cyclone advisories up to 72 hours before storm surge or tropical-storm-force winds, and storm surge flooding forecasts for Hawaiian counties.
Concerns have been raised about NOAA’s forecasting capabilities due to budget and staff cuts, including the loss of two Hurricane Hunter flight directors, potentially limiting data collection and forecast accuracy.
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