AAA projects 79.9 million travelers will head 50 miles or more from home over the Thanksgiving holiday travel period*. For the first time, AAA’s forecast includes the Tuesday before and the Monday after Thanksgiving Day to better capture the flow of holiday travelers. This year’s projection of nearly 80 million travelers is an increase of 1.7 million people compared to last year and 2 million more than in 2019.
“Thanksgiving is the busiest holiday for travel, and this year we’re expecting to set new records across the board, from driving to flying and cruising,” said Stacey Barber, Vice President of AAA Travel. “Americans reconnect with family and friends over Thanksgiving, and travel is a big part of that. AAA continues to see travel demand soar post-pandemic with our members looking for new adventures and memorable vacations.”
Thanksgiving Travelers By Mode
By Car: AAA projects a record 71.7 million people will travel by car over Thanksgiving – that’s an additional 1.3 million travelers on the road compared to last year. This year’s number also surpasses pre-pandemic numbers when 70.6 million people drove to their Thanksgiving destinations in 2019.
Gas prices are lower this Thanksgiving season compared to 2023. The national average last Thanksgiving Day was $3.26. Falling oil prices this autumn may help push the national average below $3 a gallon for the first time since 2021, and that could happen before drivers hit the road for Thanksgiving. Regionally, drivers east of the Rockies will find gas between $2.25 to $2.50 a gallon in more than a dozen states.
AAA car rental partner Hertz says Atlanta, Las Vegas, Los Angeles, Miami, Oahu, Orlando, and Phoenix are the cities displaying the highest rental demand for the Thanksgiving holiday. The busiest car pick-up day is expected to be the Wednesday before Thanksgiving, and the busiest rental return days will be the Monday and Tuesday after the holiday.
By Air: Thanksgiving air travel is also expected to set a new record. AAA projects 5.84 million people will fly domestically this holiday. That’s an increase of 2% compared to last year and a nearly 11% increase over 2019. According to AAA booking data, air travelers are paying 3% more for domestic Thanksgiving flights this year, while the number of flight bookings is similar to last year. International flight bookings are up 23% compared to last Thanksgiving, in part because the cost to fly internationally is down 5%.
By Other Modes: Nearly 2.3 million people are expected to travel by other modes of transportation, including buses, cruises, and trains. This category is seeing an increase of almost 9% compared to last year and an 18% jump over 2019, in large part due to the popularity of cruising. The demand for cruises has been red-hot post-pandemic. Domestic and international cruise bookings are up 20% compared to last Thanksgiving.
🚘Best/Worst Times to Drive and Peak Congestion
INRIX, a provider of transportation data and insights, says the worst times to travel by car over Thanksgiving are Tuesday and Wednesday afternoon. The best time to hit the road is Thanksgiving Day itself when interstates and highways are typically clear. Drivers returning home on Sunday should leave early in the morning, and those coming back on Monday should expect a mix of travelers and work commuters on the road.
“With a record number of travelers expected to be on the road, drivers should follow traffic apps and local news alerts to avoid major delays,” said Bob Pishue, transportation analyst at INRIX. “This is especially important for drivers in metropolitan areas like Boston, New York, LA, Seattle, and Washington, DC, where traffic is expected to be more than double what it typically is on a normal day.”
The FOX Forecast Center is continuing to monitor the Thanksgiving week weather forecast and expects there to be some potential travel disruptions. But while a majority of people should reach their destinations unaffected by extreme weather, getting home may be a different story - especially in the East.
The holiday week is set to start with stormy conditions on the West Coast and quick-moving over the Great Lakes.
The storm system over the northern tier of the U.S. is expected to move out of the country by Tuesday, resulting in minimal accumulations, but the system over the West Coast could present challenges.
Similar to the recent atmospheric river event, the invasion of moisture along the West Coast is expected to result in heavy rain and gusty winds in the lower elevations and mountain snow.
Thanksgiving week forecast includes snow, heavy rain for holiday travel across US https://t.co/0jEKxI44t7 #FoxWeather
— Tom Benson (@Tombenson1) November 24, 2024
Cities such as Portland, Oregon, and San Francisco will likely see the heaviest precipitation, though the storm’s severity is expected to be much less than the recent deadly atmospheric river event that caused tree falls and flooding.
The FOX Forecast Center expects Black Friday to be the most disruptive day for travel, especially along the East Coast, as an area of low pressure tries to develop off the Eastern Seaboard.
Depending on the exact location of the low-pressure center will determine if the Eastern Seaboard sees just an occasional shower or if the day is a washout – or more.
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