TV Ratings Bounce Expected For The Oscars

With several box office smashes up for best picture and other awards at Sunday night’s Oscars, film industry experts expect ratings for this year’s Academy Awards to rise over last year, according to Forbes.

Of course, leftover buzz from one of 2022’s biggest moments, when Will Smith slapped presenter Chris Rock for making a joke about Jada Pinkett Smith (Smith’s wife,) could help propel ratings even higher, as people want to witness similar moments that go viral on social media.

“Theoretically and logically, you would think the bigger the gross overall box office for the collective grouping of best picture nominees, the greater the interest in seeing the telecast, and I think that’s true,” says Paul Dergarabedian, senior media analyst at comScore. “This year, you have Avatar: The Way of Water, Elvis and Top Gun: Maverick, three blockbuster movies, in the mix. That’s one of the biggest blockbuster crops ever to be up for best picture, with two films over $500 million domestically.”

Dergarabedian notes that Avatar and Maverick, both sequels to popular films from more than a decade ago, combined to gross over $3.7 billion internationally. Elvis added another $300 million, pushing the three movies to over $4 billion worldwide gross. That means millions of people went to see them in theaters, boding well for ABC, which carries the Oscars broadcast.

The most-watched Academy Awards of all time dovetail with years when blockbuster movies are up for awards. The ceremony pulled some of its best viewership numbers in 1983 (Gandhi), 1998 (Titanic) and 2004 (Lord of the Rings: Return of the King). By contrast, years without big hits (including 2021, when Covid all but shut down the box office) tend to post lower Oscars ratings.

Last year’s broadcast averaged 13.7 million total viewers, according to comScore data, the second-lowest since 2017 but up 52% over the previous year’s all-time low of 9 million. Last year CODA, an AppleTV+ movie with a streaming-focused release that grossed just $2 million domestically, won best picture.