Report: Hip Hop, R&B Is Having A So-So Year

Jack Harlow, Nicki Minaj and Drake

If you want to know about the state of hip-hop and R&B this year, just look at Drake and Beyoncé, according to The Wall Street Journal. They are two of the biggest superstars of the genre, yet their latest albums were more focused on dance grooves than rhymes.

Meanwhile, the tragic deaths of some of rap’s most promising young acts like Juice WRLD, Pop Smoke and XXXTentacion have left a gaping creative hole.

All of this helps to explain why hip-hop is having a so-so year.

Only 10 rap albums have topped the Billboard album chart this year, down from 15 in 2021 and 17 in both 2020 and 2019. By this time two years ago, rap albums had spent a collective 23 weeks at No. 1. This year, the figure is 11 weeks. The Billboard singles chart has been less dominated by rap than in prior years, too.

Hip-hop and R&B have been on a tear over the past decade, unseating rock as America’s most popular genre in 2017. Artists such as Kanye West, Drake, Migos, Kendrick Lamar, Frank Ocean and Cardi B dominated the record business, helping hip-hop saturate popular culture much more than before. The genre’s market share, just 18% at the end of 2015, surged upward for years. By roughly this time of year in 2020, hip-hop/R&B’s share of U.S. music consumption, including streaming, album sales and track downloads, hit 30%, according to Luminate, whose data powers the Billboard charts.

But hip-hop and R&B now appear to be plateauing. Last year, its market share through mid-September dipped to 29%. This year, it’s 28%. By contrast, rock, pop, Latin music and country have seen relatively small changes over the same two-year period.

The reasons for the slowing are complex. Music executives point to the rising popularity of Latin artists such as Bad Bunny and Rosalía, a dearth of new breakout rap stars like Jack Harlow, less innovation by established acts and a wave of deaths among emerging hip-hop superstars. Other analysts say the growing number of older music fans on streaming and arcane changes to Billboard chart rules are playing a role.

It’s too early to declare that hip-hop is facing a downturn. Its market share of 28% still dwarfs rock (20%), pop (13%), country (8%) and Latin music (6%).

Executives also say it’s understandable—healthy, even—for hip-hop to experience a lull after its bull run in the 2010s. Rap has periodically seen its popularity dip, only to be revived by a new superstar: Kanye West, for example, re-energized rap in the 2000s, helping broaden its appeal among mainstream listeners.

There’s another technical factor affecting rap: In 2020, Billboard tweaked its chart rules to exclude “album and merchandise bundles.”

Music stars, including rappers, had gamed the charts by pairing digital downloads and CDs with sales of merchandise and concert tickets. The strategy goosed traditional music sales, which are weighted more heavily in chart rankings than streaming, helping artists hit No. 1.