Report: Spotify Is Cautiously Optimistic on Growth

This week Spotify reported it had a solid second quarter, finishing with 188 million subscribers — 1 million ahead of its guidance., It also reached 433 million total monthly listeners — 5 million above its guidance. Beating guidance helped Spotify shares climb 12.2% to $116.61 on Wednesday, its highest mark since June 24.

In the second quarter, Spotify’s subscription growth was led by Europe and Latin America, while emerging markets such as India, Indonesia and the Philippines were standouts in monthly active users, according to the company’s Q2 2022 earnings report presentation. This is par for the course, according to Spotify CFO Paul Vogel who spoke with Billboard after the earnings report published. Emerging markets, he says, will provide user growth more than revenue gains — at least initially.

“We have this dynamic where we still have growth in our developed markets,” says Vogel “And we think the opportunity to increase monetization is really there. We see even faster [user] growth in our developing markets. And monetization will come — a little bit now but more in the years to come.”

Paul Vogel

Vogel says those emerging markets — large populations with sizable middle classes — are improving over time. Initially, Spotify wanted to launch in markets where it had complete understanding of the marketing and product/market fit. But after launching in roughly 80 additional markets in February 2021, Spotify is learning through experience. “We’re just getting better at local marketing, local advertising [and] tailoring the message to individual markets.”

Despite posting better-than-expected gains in monthly active users and subscribers, Spotify does not appear to be taking growth for granted. “I do believe only the paranoid survive,” said Vogel during Wednesday’s earnings call, “and we are preparing as if things could get worse.” That means watching spending and maintaining margins. Vogel reminded analysts Spotify decided to “proactively” reduce its hiring growth rate by 25% in the third quarter, which Billboard reported on June 15.

Importantly, Spotify does not see a “real impact” on subscriber outlook from the increasingly tenuous macroeconomic conditions. Vogel said during the earnings call that Spotify expects “similar” net additions — acquisitions net of churn — in the third quarter and “several” markets are trending ahead of forecasts.