Report: Thanksgiving Weekend Forecast

More than 165 million Americans say they are likely to shop either in-store or online this coming Thanksgiving weekend (Thursday through Monday), according to Marketing Charts citing the latest holiday survey from NRF. That figure is up slightly from last year when similar estimates called for 164 million to shop during the 5-day period.



The most enthusiasm for Thanksgiving weekend in the NRF survey is reserved for Black Friday: 69% of those who plan to shop on Thanksgiving weekend said they either will or might shop that day. That compares to the just more than two-fifths (42%) who might shop on Cyber Monday, and about one-quarter (24%) on Thanksgiving Day.

Here are some further statistics regarding key shopping days over the 5-day period:

• Globally, Salesforce forecasts year-over-year (y-o-y) online sales growth of 24% for Black Friday, 18% for Thanksgiving, and 22% for Cyber Monday. Additionally, Salesforce predicts that digital revenue for the Tuesday and Wednesday before Thanksgiving will grow by 19% y-o-y. (Link).
• Within the US, the Thanksgiving Weekend (Thursday through Monday) is expected to generate one-fifth (20%) of total online holiday sales, according to Adobe Digital Insights, which also notes that online revenue growth during that period will outpace online sales growth during the entire holiday period. Cyber Monday will continue to be the key day, with the highest predicted sales ($9.4 billion) and the fastest growth (+18.9% year-over-year). (Link)
• Cyber Monday might – as its name suggests – be the heaviest day for online spending, but Black Friday will be the busiest day for in-store traffic, according to a ShopperTrak forecast. (Link)

Some 44% of consumers who plan to shop over Black Friday weekend will try to avoid the crowds and take advantage of click-and-pickup options by purchasing online and picking up in-store, with 72% of those shoppers expected to spend even more while at the store, according to a survey from the ICSC.

The ICSC expects the vast majority of spending to occur in-store, and the Consumer Technology Association indicates that more people will shop for tech products in-store than online during the 5-day Thanksgiving period. Separately, the CTA survey finds that 82% of US shoppers plan to buy tech accessories during the critical shopping period, with US adults planning to purchase wireless earbuds/headphone, mobile device cases and video game discs.

No matter what shoppers are buying, more of them are shopping on Thanksgiving Day. Per data from Comscore, digital commerce (which includes both desktop and mobile spending) on Thanksgiving Day grew 36% y-o-y in 2018 to reach $3.4 billion.