eMarketer doesn’t expect TV advertising to rebound until 2020 — and then only slightly by 0.5 percent — because of the NBC-broadcast Tokyo Summer Olympics and the presidential election.
Television advertising has been battered by the popularity of the ad-free streaming service Netflix — which has led to declines in Nielsen ratings for broadcast-TV and cable-TV ratings — and increased in targeted ads on social media and digital platforms such as Google and Facebook. Even streaming device Roku now sells ads, adding more competition for legacy television networks.
Comcast’s NBCUniversal and Fox have said they would cut their advertising load, or the number of advertisements during dramas and entertainment shows, as viewers expect a more enjoyable viewing experience — one not cluttered by a parade of ads. Comcast also has launched an advanced advertising group in New York to target television ads to audiences.“The ad dollars follow the audience and the TV audience is declining. I don’t think there is a reason to sugarcoat this,” Paul Verna, principal analyst for video at eMarketer, said in a recent interview. “I don’t think you are looking at a dying industry,” Verna said. “We are looking at a shift.”
According to eMarketer, television advertising fell 1.5 percent in 2017 to $70.2 billion and will drop 0.5 percent this year, in addition to a 1 percent decline in 2019.
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