NJ Radio: Meteorologists Apologize For Blizzard Forecast

A snowstorm of epic proportions failed to live up to predictions in New Jersey and some areas of the U.S. east coast, prompting one meteorologist for the National Weather Service of Philadelphia/Mount Holly to apologize for getting the #BlizzardOf2015 forecast completely wrong.

“My deepest apologies to many key decision makers and so many members of the general public,” Gary Szatkowski tweeted. “You made a lot of tough decisions expecting us to get it right, and we didn’t. Once again, I’m sorry.”

On Monday morning, forecasters were predicting close to three feet of snow will fall during the ‘blizzard of 2015′ in the New Jersey area.

Ahead of the storm, Gov. Chris Christie declared a state of an emergency and issued a state-wide travel ban.

Early Tuesday morning, Szatkowski said snow “totals are way down” compared to predictions.

The Forecast

What they got

Dan Zarrow, chief meteorologist for WKXW 101.5 FM and Townsquare Media in New Jersey, echoed those sentiments.

“There’s a lot to learn from this storm and the way yesterday played out,” Zarrow said early Tuesday.

Dan Zarrow

“When it comes down to it, I generally tend toward the “worst-case scenario” forecast, as I did here. I would much rather “bust” a forecast than “miss” a big storm. If I had predicted three to six inches and we actually got three feet, the public’s pitchforks would be even sharper this morning. Nonetheless, I sincerely apologize for letting you down, New Jersey.”

Zarrow, who spent all day Monday tracking the movement of the storm, said it was a “close call” forecast and that any variations in the track would cause huge differences in weather conditions,  As it turned out, the storm tracked roughly 50 miles further to the east than expected.

“My job as a meteorologist is to present not only a forecast of expected weather conditions, but also provide an honest assessment of my confidence that those conditions will actually happen,” said Zarrow.  “I think I could have communicated that uncertainty a lot better, and will work on ways to do that better for the next storm.”

The storm is still on track to dump  10 inches to 20 inches on much of Long Island and New England. The Boston office of the National Weather Service reports snow falling at a rate of 3-4 inches per hour in Eastern New England between Portland, Maine and New London, Connecticut.


  Tweets by @GarySzatkowski