BIA/Kelsey: Online Digital Expected To Drive Ad Revenue

In the midyear update to its Annual U.S. Local Media Forecast (2012-2017), BIA/Kelsey projects total U.S. local media ad revenues to grow from $132.9 billion in 2013 to $151.5 billion in 2017, representing a 2.8 percent compound annual growth rate, growing faster than the firm originally forecast earlier this year.

Faster growth in online/digital advertising revenues will drive that faster overall growth, increasing at a 13.8 percent compound annual growth rate (CAGR) from $26.5 billion in 2013 to $44.5 billion in 2017. That compares with a CAGR of 0.1 percent during the same period for traditional advertising revenues, which will remain flat, growing slightly from $106.4 billion in 2013 to $107 billion in 2017.

Mark Fratik

“A range of factors will drive local ad revenues higher in 2014 and through the end of the forecast period,” said Mark Fratrik, chief economist, BIA/Kelsey. “A slightly improving U.S. economy, positive outlook by investors, the 2014 elections and Olympics, as well as ad spending around the Affordable Health Care Act, which comes out of the local ad pie, will all contribute to increased local ad spending.”

Location targeted mobile advertising revenues, which are growing at a faster pace than overall mobile advertising, will increase from $2.9 billion in 2013 to $10.8 billion in 2017, accounting for 52 percent of overall U.S. mobile ad spending in 2017. Total mobile ad spending will grow from $7 billion in 2013 to $20.7 billion in 2017.

For the first time, BIA/Kelsey’s forecast breaks out the share of ad revenues attributed to print and over-the-air (O-T-A) versus online/digital for Yellow Pages, newspapers, television and radio. The following represent individual media segment shares of the overall local media market by 2017and how those shares have moved from their 2013 position:

• Newspapers Print: decreasing to 9.1% in 2017
• Newspapers Online/Digital: remaining steady at 2.4% in 2017
• Yellow Pages Print: decreasing to 1.5% in 2017
• Yellow Pages Digital/Online: increasing to 1.9% in 2017
• Radio O-T-A: decreasing slightly to 10.6% in 2017
• Radio Online/Digital: growing to 0.5% in 2017
• TV O-T-A: decreasing slightly to 14.6% in 2017
• TV Online/Digital: growing to 0.7% in 2017